According to prominent statistician Nate Silver, the 2016 election may end up in a tie, sending the ultimate decision to Congress. This is all because of former Governor Gary Johnson‘s home state of New Mexico, where Johnson is in a competitive race against Clinton and Trump.
Here’s what a recent poll found in New Mexico
- Clinton: 35%
- Trump: 31%
- Johnson: 24%
Silver wrote in a recent post for FiveThirtyEight:
Most of the time, Trump would be the beneficiary of a Clinton loss in New Mexico. But the model also assigns Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s presidential nominee, an outside chance — 2 or 3 percent — of winning the state. That could lead to an Electoral College deadlock that looks like this:
While the likelihood of this happening is extremely low, it nonetheless provides fuel to the Libertarian candidate’s campaign as third-party activists attempt to benefit from dissatisfaction from voters with Trump and Clinton.
It’s not far-fetched to think the Electoral College would be close enough that New Mexico would make the difference, and it’s not totally crazy to think that Johnson could win his home state. But for both to occur together is quite a parlay.
And Johnson is all about it.